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module 35: shifting-cultivation disturbance from Sims et al. (2025), replacing the Curtis table #934

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module 35: shifting-cultivation disturbance from Sims et al. (2025), replacing the Curtis table #934

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30d8a59
module 35: adopt the Sims driver classes for f35_forest_lost_share
mscrawford Sep 10, 2026
46f5361
module 35: driver_source carries only non-endogenous disturbances
mscrawford Sep 10, 2026
042bad2
module 35: drop natural disturbance from driver_source
mscrawford Sep 11, 2026
167aefd
module 35: remove f35_forest_disturbance_share, never read
mscrawford Sep 12, 2026
b5ff48d
module 35: name the renamed mrland function in the driver_source comment
mscrawford Sep 14, 2026
df67c2f
Shorten the driver_source comments in 35_natveg sets.gms
mscrawford Sep 22, 2026
cd26a3f
Merge upstream/develop into fix/forest-loss-drivers
mscrawford Sep 22, 2026
9ed6a61
Drop the unused overall column from driver_source
mscrawford Sep 29, 2026
e8ac3c9
Merge upstream/develop into fix/forest-loss-drivers
mscrawford Oct 5, 2026
9847180
35_natveg: remove combined_loss and s35_forest_damage option 3
mscrawford Oct 6, 2026
3582a99
Merge upstream/develop into fix/forest-loss-drivers
mscrawford Oct 9, 2026
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8 changes: 5 additions & 3 deletions config/default.cfg
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Expand Up @@ -1178,11 +1178,13 @@ cfg$gms$s35_secdf_distribution <- 2 # def = 2

# Damages in natural forests
# * (0): No damage simulated
# * (1): Damage from shifting agriculture (constant)
# * (2): Damage from shifting agriculture is faded out by the year defined in 'cfg$gms$c35_forest_damage_end'
# * (1): Damage from shifting cultivation (constant)
# * (2): Damage from shifting cultivation is faded out by the year defined in 'cfg$gms$s35_forest_damage_end'
# * (3): Damage from every class in the `combined_loss` subset of `driver_source`, not faded.
# * That subset currently holds shifting cultivation alone, so (3) equals (1).
# * (4): Generic forest disturbance scenarios defined in `f35_forest_shock.csv`
cfg$gms$s35_forest_damage <- 2 # def = 2
# * If option (2) above: Year by which damage from shifting agriculture has petered out
# * If option (2) above: Year by which damage from shifting cultivation has petered out
cfg$gms$s35_forest_damage_end <- 2050 #def = 2050

# Harvesting switch for timber production
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1 change: 0 additions & 1 deletion modules/35_natveg/input/files
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@@ -1,6 +1,5 @@
* list of files that are required here
npi_ndc_ad_aolc_pol.cs3
f35_forest_disturbance_share.cs4
f35_forest_lost_share.cs3
f35_forest_shock.csv
pot_forest_area.cs2
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11 changes: 2 additions & 9 deletions modules/35_natveg/pot_forest_may24/input.gms
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Expand Up @@ -24,12 +24,12 @@ s35_timber_harvest_cost_other Cost for harvesting from other land (USD17M
s35_timber_harvest_cost_primforest Cost for harvesting from primary forest (USD17MER per ha) / 3690/
s35_natveg_harvest_shr Constrains the allowed wood harvest from natural vegetation (1=unconstrained) (1) /1/
s35_secdf_distribution Flag for secdf initialization (0=all secondary forest in highest age class 1=Equal distribution among all age classes 2=Poulter distribution from MODIS satellite data) (1) / 2 /
s35_forest_damage Damage simulation in forests (0=none 1=shifting agriculture 2= Damage from shifting agriculture is faded out by c35_forest_damage_end 4= f35_forest_shock scenario) / 2 /
s35_forest_damage Damage simulation in forests (0=none 1=shifting cultivation 2=shifting cultivation faded out by s35_forest_damage_end 3=all combined_loss classes 4= f35_forest_shock scenario) / 2 /
s35_forest_damage_end Year of forest damage end (1) / 2050 /
s35_npi_ndc_reversal Year in which NPI NDC reversal should take place (1) / Inf /
;

table f35_forest_lost_share(i,driver_source) Share of area damaged by forest fires (1)
table f35_forest_lost_share(i,driver_source) Share of forest area disturbed per year by driver (1)
$ondelim
$include "./modules/35_natveg/input/f35_forest_lost_share.cs3"
$offdelim
Expand All @@ -47,13 +47,6 @@ $include "./modules/35_natveg/input/f35_forest_shock.csv"
$offdelim
;

parameter f35_forest_disturbance_share(i) Share of area damaged by forest disturbances (1)

@mscrawford mscrawford Sep 15, 2026 •
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Correction: this is f35_forest_disturbance_share (FRA-based disturbance shares, added in December 2020), which was loaded but never read. Michael Windisch's forest shock table (f35_forest_shock.csv, s35_forest_damage = 4) is not touched.

/
$ondelim
$include "./modules/35_natveg/input/f35_forest_disturbance_share.cs4"
$offdelim
/;

parameter f35_pot_forest_area(t_all,j) Potential forest area (mio. ha)
/
$ondelim
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10 changes: 5 additions & 5 deletions modules/35_natveg/pot_forest_may24/presolve.gms
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Expand Up @@ -6,19 +6,19 @@
*** | Contact: magpie@pik-potsdam.de

* ----------------------------------------------------
* Shift ageclasses due to shifting agriculture fires
* Shift ageclasses due to forest disturbance
* ----------------------------------------------------

* first calculate damages
if(s35_forest_damage=1,
p35_disturbance_loss_secdf(t,j,ac_sub) = pc35_secdforest(j,ac_sub) * sum(cell(i,j),f35_forest_lost_share(i,"shifting_agriculture"))*m_timestep_length_forestry;
p35_disturbance_loss_primf(t,j) = pcm_land(j,"primforest") * sum(cell(i,j),f35_forest_lost_share(i,"shifting_agriculture"))*m_timestep_length_forestry;
p35_disturbance_loss_secdf(t,j,ac_sub) = pc35_secdforest(j,ac_sub) * sum(cell(i,j),f35_forest_lost_share(i,"shifting_cultivation"))*m_timestep_length_forestry;
p35_disturbance_loss_primf(t,j) = pcm_land(j,"primforest") * sum(cell(i,j),f35_forest_lost_share(i,"shifting_cultivation"))*m_timestep_length_forestry;
);

* shifting cultivation is faded out
if(s35_forest_damage=2,
p35_disturbance_loss_secdf(t,j,ac_sub) = pc35_secdforest(j,ac_sub) * sum(cell(i,j),f35_forest_lost_share(i,"shifting_agriculture"))*m_timestep_length_forestry*(1 - p35_damage_fader(t));
p35_disturbance_loss_primf(t,j) = pcm_land(j,"primforest") * sum(cell(i,j),f35_forest_lost_share(i,"shifting_agriculture"))*m_timestep_length_forestry*(1 - p35_damage_fader(t));
p35_disturbance_loss_secdf(t,j,ac_sub) = pc35_secdforest(j,ac_sub) * sum(cell(i,j),f35_forest_lost_share(i,"shifting_cultivation"))*m_timestep_length_forestry*(1 - p35_damage_fader(t));
p35_disturbance_loss_primf(t,j) = pcm_land(j,"primforest") * sum(cell(i,j),f35_forest_lost_share(i,"shifting_cultivation"))*m_timestep_length_forestry*(1 - p35_damage_fader(t));
);

if(s35_forest_damage=3,
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15 changes: 9 additions & 6 deletions modules/35_natveg/pot_forest_may24/sets.gms
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Expand Up @@ -7,12 +7,15 @@

sets

driver_source Source of deforestation drivers
/ overall, deforestation, shifting_agriculture,
forestry, wildfire, urbanization /

combined_loss(driver_source) Combined loss from fire plus agriculture
/ shifting_agriculture,wildfire /
* Disturbance classes in f35_forest_lost_share: those that leave the land as forest, are not
* decided endogenously, and are land use rather than natural disturbance (the flux is booked
* as land-use-change CO2). Selected in mrland::calcForestLossByDriver. overall is never read.
driver_source Source of forest disturbance
/ overall, shifting_cultivation /

* One element, so s35_forest_damage = 3 equals 1; kept so re-admitting a class is one line.
combined_loss(driver_source) Combined loss from disturbances not modelled endogenously
/ shifting_cultivation /

pol35 Land protection policy
/ none, npi, ndc /
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