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Insights #10/#11 + greatest playoff runs page - #48

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jcdavis131 merged 3 commits into
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scout/insights-10-11-playoff-runs
Oct 1, 2026
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jcdavis131 merged 3 commits into
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scout/insights-10-11-playoff-runs

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Two new Insights cards and a new rankings page, all recomputed from the served data.

Card #10 — Playoff risers & fallers (corrected copy)

  • Verified population: 334 established-scorer seasons (RS GP>=40, RS pts/100>=28, PO GP>=8, playoff usage>=18), 1996-97 to 2025-26
  • Mitchell owns the two biggest leaps (+8.6, +8.3); Embiid owns the single biggest collapse (-14.6, largest in the sample)
  • Durant and LeBron tie at +7.2 — both charted (exact float tie); Clarkson's unsupported 'Finals vanishing' label removed

Card #11 — 2026-27 preseason preview (rebuilt on valid data)

  • Old version used the broken total_min field — thrown out and recomputed
  • Rotation = rostered players with >=20 GP in 2025-26 (keeps injured stars, drops camp bodies)
  • 429/473 roster names matched with suffix-tolerant matching; summer moves (Giannis->MIA, Brown->PHI, LeBron->PHI, Kawhi->TOR, Morant->POR) verified against Reuters/USA Today
  • Five teams clear both bars (playoff-shaped rotation + top-10 engine): Lakers, OKC, Denver, Philadelphia, Miami
  • Portland has the most playoff-shaped rotation (5.67) with no engine; the 2026 finalists (Knicks 4.80, Spurs 4.84) win on talent, not shape

Greatest playoff runs page — 42 ranked runs across individuals, duos, trios, teams. Starters deliberately omitted: the source minutes field is broken, so we don't fake them.

Also: insights.html 9 -> 11 findings, cross-links between Insights and the runs page, SW cache v7 -> v8, every served file mirrored root/public (byte-parity verified).

Honest flags

  • Screenshot QA not done — no working browser on this machine
  • Matchup Nightmares' 4,739 population still unreconciled vs a direct 4,797 recount — untouched, tracked separately
  • 2026-27 rosters are projections as of 2026-10-01; camp cuts pending

No merge without Cameron's word.

- Card #10 (playoff-swings): corrected copy — Mitchell owns the two
  biggest leaps; Embiid owns the single biggest collapse (-14.6);
  Durant ties LeBron at +7.2 (both charted); Clarkson's unsupported
  'Finals vanishing' label removed; 334-season population disclosed.
- Card #11 (contenders-pretenders): rebuilt on a valid participation
  model (gp>=20 rotation, suffix-tolerant name matching, 429/473 names
  matched). Five teams clear both bars — LAL, OKC, DEN, PHI, MIA.
  Portland is the most playoff-shaped rotation without an engine;
  the 2026 finalists win on talent, not shape.
- New greatest-playoff-runs page: 42 ranked runs across individuals,
  duos, trios, teams. Starters omitted honestly — the source minutes
  field cannot identify them.
- insights.html: 9 -> 11 findings; cross-links between Insights and
  the playoff-runs page.
- SW cache bumped v7 -> v8; all served files mirrored root/public.
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Approved. Cursor Bugbot was not present on this PR after the first check poll, so that automated-review signal was skipped; remaining configured signals and approval policies do not require human review. No reviewers were assigned.

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@jcdavis131
jcdavis131 merged commit 66739f0 into master Oct 1, 2026
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