Add matchup-nightmares Insights card (9th finding)

assets/insights.js

@@ -23,17 +23,35 @@
 
   function barsSVG(ins) {
     var rows = ins.rows.slice(0, 8);
-    var max = Math.max.apply(null, rows.map(function (r) { return r.value; }));
+    var vals = rows.map(function (r) { return r.value; });
+    var max = Math.max.apply(null, vals), min = Math.min.apply(null, vals);
     var W = 620, rowH = 34, padL = 200, padR = 130;
     var H = rows.length * rowH + 8;
     var s = '<svg viewBox="0 0 ' + W + ' ' + H + '" class="vh-ins__viz" role="img" aria-label="' + esc(ins.viz_label || 'bar chart') + '">';
-    rows.forEach(function (r, i) {
-      var y = i * rowH + 8, w = Math.max(3, (r.value / max) * (W - padL - padR));
-      var gold = i === 0;
-      s += '<text x="0" y="' + (y + 17) + '" class="vh-ins__svglabel">' + esc(r.label) + '</text>';
-      s += '<rect x="' + padL + '" y="' + y + '" width="' + w.toFixed(1) + '" height="20" rx="4" fill="' + (gold ? GOLD : TERRA) + '" opacity="' + (gold ? 1 : 0.55 + 0.4 * (1 - i / rows.length)) + '"/>';
-      s += '<text x="' + (padL + w + 8) + '" y="' + (y + 16) + '" class="vh-ins__svgval">' + r.value + (r.tag ? ' · ' + esc(r.tag) : '') + '</text>';
-    });
+    if (min >= 0) {
+      rows.forEach(function (r, i) {
+        var y = i * rowH + 8, w = Math.max(3, (r.value / max) * (W - padL - padR));
+        var gold = i === 0;
+        s += '<text x="0" y="' + (y + 17) + '" class="vh-ins__svglabel">' + esc(r.label) + '</text>';
+        s += '<rect x="' + padL + '" y="' + y + '" width="' + w.toFixed(1) + '" height="20" rx="4" fill="' + (gold ? GOLD : TERRA) + '" opacity="' + (gold ? 1 : 0.55 + 0.4 * (1 - i / rows.length)) + '"/>';
+        s += '<text x="' + (padL + w + 8) + '" y="' + (y + 16) + '" class="vh-ins__svgval">' + r.value + (r.tag ? ' · ' + esc(r.tag) : '') + '</text>';
+      });
+    } else {
+      // Diverging bars around a zero axis (e.g. playoff deltas that go negative).
+      var span = max - min, plotW = W - padL - padR;
+      var zeroX = padL + ((0 - min) / span) * plotW;
+      s += '<line x1="' + zeroX.toFixed(1) + '" y1="4" x2="' + zeroX.toFixed(1) + '" y2="' + (H - 4) + '" stroke="' + MUTED + '" stroke-width="1"/>';
+      rows.forEach(function (r, i) {
+        var y = i * rowH + 8;
+        var bw = Math.max(3, (Math.abs(r.value) / span) * plotW);
+        var bx = r.value < 0 ? zeroX - bw : zeroX;
+        var fill = r.value < 0 ? TERRA : GOLD;
+        var lx = r.value < 0 ? zeroX + 8 : bx + bw + 8;
+        s += '<text x="0" y="' + (y + 17) + '" class="vh-ins__svglabel">' + esc(r.label) + '</text>';
+        s += '<rect x="' + bx.toFixed(1) + '" y="' + y + '" width="' + bw.toFixed(1) + '" height="20" rx="4" fill="' + fill + '"/>';
+        s += '<text x="' + lx.toFixed(1) + '" y="' + (y + 16) + '" class="vh-ins__svgval">' + r.value + (r.tag ? ' · ' + esc(r.tag) : '') + '</text>';
+      });
+    }
     return s + '</svg>';
   }
 
@@ -255,22 +273,45 @@
     c.save();
     if (ins.viz === 'bars') {
       var rows = ins.rows.slice(0, 5);
-      var max = Math.max.apply(null, rows.map(function (r) { return r.value; }));
+      var bvals = rows.map(function (r) { return r.value; });
+      var bmax = Math.max.apply(null, bvals), bmin = Math.min.apply(null, bvals);
       var rh = h / rows.length;
-      rows.forEach(function (r, i) {
-        var ry = y + i * rh;
-        var bw = Math.max(4, (r.value / max) * (w - 260));
-        c.font = '400 26px ' + F; c.fillStyle = '#F9F6F0';
-        var label = r.label.length > 26 ? r.label.slice(0, 25) + '…' : r.label;
-        c.fillText(label, x, ry + rh / 2 + 8);
-        c.fillStyle = i === 0 ? GOLD : TERRA;
-        var bx = x + 260;
-        c.beginPath();
-        c.roundRect(bx, ry + rh / 2 - 13, bw, 26, 6);
-        c.fill();
-        c.fillStyle = MUTED; c.font = '400 24px ' + F;
-        c.fillText(String(r.value), bx + bw + 12, ry + rh / 2 + 8);
-      });
+      if (bmin >= 0) {
+        rows.forEach(function (r, i) {
+          var ry = y + i * rh;
+          var bw = Math.max(4, (r.value / bmax) * (w - 260));
+          c.font = '400 26px ' + F; c.fillStyle = '#F9F6F0';
+          var label = r.label.length > 26 ? r.label.slice(0, 25) + '…' : r.label;
+          c.fillText(label, x, ry + rh / 2 + 8);
+          c.fillStyle = i === 0 ? GOLD : TERRA;
+          var bx = x + 260;
+          c.beginPath();
+          c.roundRect(bx, ry + rh / 2 - 13, bw, 26, 6);
+          c.fill();
+          c.fillStyle = MUTED; c.font = '400 24px ' + F;
+          c.fillText(String(r.value), bx + bw + 12, ry + rh / 2 + 8);
+        });
+      } else {
+        // Diverging bars around a zero axis (e.g. playoff deltas that go negative).
+        var dspan = bmax - bmin, dplot = w - 260 - 60;
+        var dzero = x + 260 + ((0 - bmin) / dspan) * dplot;
+        c.strokeStyle = MUTED; c.lineWidth = 1;
+        c.beginPath(); c.moveTo(dzero, y); c.lineTo(dzero, y + h); c.stroke();
+        rows.forEach(function (r, i) {
+          var dry = y + i * rh;
+          var dbw = Math.max(4, (Math.abs(r.value) / dspan) * dplot);
+          var dbx = r.value < 0 ? dzero - dbw : dzero;
+          c.font = '400 26px ' + F; c.fillStyle = '#F9F6F0';
+          var dlabel = r.label.length > 26 ? r.label.slice(0, 25) + '…' : r.label;
+          c.fillText(dlabel, x, dry + rh / 2 + 8);
+          c.fillStyle = r.value < 0 ? TERRA : GOLD;
+          c.beginPath();
+          c.roundRect(dbx, dry + rh / 2 - 13, dbw, 26, 6);
+          c.fill();
+          c.fillStyle = MUTED; c.font = '400 24px ' + F;
+          c.fillText(String(r.value), (r.value < 0 ? dzero : dbx + dbw) + 12, dry + rh / 2 + 8);
+        });
+      }
     } else if (ins.viz === 'shares') {
       var rows2 = ins.rows;
       var rh2 = h / rows2.length;

insights.html

@@ -67,7 +67,7 @@
     <div class="title-card__eyebrow reveal">Insights</div>
     <h1 class="title-card__title reveal reveal-1">What 12,966 player-seasons taught the model</h1>
     <p class="title-card__lede reveal reveal-2">Curated findings from the embedding atlas — every number recomputable, every card built to be screenshotted and shared.</p>
-    <div class="title-card__meta reveal reveal-3"><span><b>8</b>Findings</span><span><b>30</b>Seasons of data</span><span><b>1</b>New pick daily</span></div>
+    <div class="title-card__meta reveal reveal-3"><span><b>9</b>Findings</span><span><b>30</b>Seasons of data</span><span><b>1</b>New pick daily</span></div>
   </header>
 
   <div class="vh-ins__wrap">

insights/matchup-nightmares.html

@@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
+<!DOCTYPE html>
+<html lang="en">
+<head>
+<meta charset="utf-8">
+<title>The playoffs eat shooters — Vector Hoops Insights</title>
+<meta name="description" content="Playoff game plans erase pure shooters — scoring, usage and efficiency all crater — while playmakers are the only ones whose role grows. You can scheme a jumper in two days; not a creator.">
+<link rel="canonical" href="https://hoops.dumbmodel.com/insights/matchup-nightmares">
+<meta property="og:type" content="article">
+<meta property="og:site_name" content="Vector Hoops">
+<meta property="og:title" content="The playoffs eat shooters">
+<meta property="og:description" content="Playoff game plans erase pure shooters — scoring, usage and efficiency all crater — while playmakers are the only ones whose role grows. You can scheme a jumper in two days; not a creator.">
+<meta property="og:url" content="https://hoops.dumbmodel.com/insights/matchup-nightmares">
+<meta property="og:image" content="https://hoops.dumbmodel.com/assets/og/insight-matchup-nightmares.png">
+<meta property="og:image:width" content="1200">
+<meta property="og:image:height" content="630">
+<meta name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image">
+<meta name="twitter:title" content="The playoffs eat shooters">
+<meta name="twitter:description" content="Playoff game plans erase pure shooters — scoring, usage and efficiency all crater — while playmakers are the only ones whose role grows. You can scheme a jumper in two days; not a creator.">
+<meta name="twitter:image" content="https://hoops.dumbmodel.com/assets/og/insight-matchup-nightmares.png">
+<meta http-equiv="refresh" content="0; url=/insights.html#matchup-nightmares">
+</head>
+<body>
+<p>Playoff game plans erase pure shooters — scoring, usage and efficiency all crater — while playmakers are the only ones whose role grows. You can scheme a jumper in two days; not a creator.</p>
+<p><a href="/insights.html#matchup-nightmares">View this insight on Vector Hoops</a></p>
+<script>location.replace("/insights.html#matchup-nightmares");</script>
+</body>
+</html>

pipeline/build_insights.py

@@ -84,6 +84,7 @@ def cdist(v):
     insights.append(insight_three_point(drift))
     insights.append(insight_careful_era(drift))
     insights.append(insight_contender_chemistry())
+    insights.append(insight_matchup_nightmares())
 
     out = {
         "built": "build_insights.py",
@@ -483,6 +484,91 @@ def insight_contender_chemistry():
     }
 
 
+# ---- 9. matchup nightmares ----------------------------------------------------
+# Research: /tmp/matchup-nightmares-report.md (2026-10-01).
+# Method: per-player regular-season vs playoff splits from assets/playoffs.json
+# (stats.nba.com: GP, MIN, USG, PTS100, TS, PLUS_MINUS), joined to 14-d
+# embeddings + 8 style clusters; 4,739 rotation player-seasons (made playoffs,
+# PO GP>=4, RS >=25 scaled min/g), 1996-97 -> 2024-25. League mean PO-RS
+# pts/100 is -1.50 (defenses tighten), so flat is genuinely good.
+# Honesty: "game-planning" is the best-fit mechanism (usage AND efficiency fall
+# together for shooters), not proven causation. Cluster [2]'s +0.30 (n=125) is
+# not significant -- tagged as noise, not claimed.
+
+
+def insight_matchup_nightmares():
+    # Exact values from the research pass; kept as constants with the
+    # citation above (recomputing needs playoffs.json split joins).
+    rows = [
+        {
+            "label": "Pure shooters",
+            "value": -2.28,
+            "tag": "3PT accuracy + volume · n=1,010",
+        },
+        {"label": "Volume scorers", "value": -2.09, "tag": "shot volume + 3PT volume"},
+        {
+            "label": "Glass + rim pressure",
+            "value": -1.92,
+            "tag": "defensive glass + rim pressure",
+        },
+        {
+            "label": "Glass + rim protection",
+            "value": -1.69,
+            "tag": "offensive glass + rim protection",
+        },
+        {
+            "label": "Scoring volume",
+            "value": -1.41,
+            "tag": "scoring volume + shot volume",
+        },
+        {
+            "label": "Low-volume glass",
+            "value": -0.74,
+            "tag": "offensive glass, low shot volume",
+        },
+        {
+            "label": "3PT volume, low impact",
+            "value": 0.30,
+            "tag": "n=125 · not significant",
+        },
+        {
+            "label": "Playmakers",
+            "value": -0.18,
+            "tag": "playmaking + steals · n=588 · role grows",
+        },
+    ]
+    return {
+        "slug": "matchup-nightmares",
+        "tldr": "Playoff game plans erase pure shooters — scoring, usage and efficiency "
+        "all crater — while playmakers are the only ones whose role grows. You can "
+        "scheme a jumper in two days; not a creator.",
+        "kicker": "Matchup nightmares",
+        "title": "May solves shooters. It can't solve playmakers.",
+        "lede": "Playoff minus regular-season pts/100 by style archetype — 4,739 rotation "
+        "player-seasons, 1996-97 → 2024-25. Pure 3-point specialists lose 2.3 pts/100 in "
+        "May, with usage (-1.00) and true shooting (-0.039) falling too — worst of all "
+        "eight archetypes. Playmakers are the only group whose role grows (usage +0.19), "
+        "and 1 in 16 playoff offenses runs through a playmaker as its usage leader, up "
+        "from 1 in 250 in the regular season. The pattern fits a game-planning story — a "
+        "best-of-7 gives defenses time to scheme a jumper, not a creator — but that's the "
+        "best-fit mechanism, not proven causation. Loudest single-season swings are "
+        "small-sample color: Donovan Mitchell '19-20 (+16.0) and DeMarcus Cousins '20-21 "
+        "(+18.1) up; Joel Embiid '22-23 (-14.6) and Troy Daniels '16-17 (-16.3) down.",
+        "stat": "-2.3",
+        "stat_label": "playoff pts/100 drop for pure 3-point specialists "
+        "(usage and efficiency fall too)",
+        "viz": "bars",
+        "viz_label": "Playoff scoring change (pts/100) by style archetype",
+        "rows": rows,
+        "foot": "4,739 rotation player-seasons (playoff GP ≥ 4, regular season ≥ 25 scaled "
+        "min/g); regular-season vs playoff splits via stats.nba.com; 2025-26 excluded "
+        "(season in progress).",
+        "og_title": "The playoffs eat shooters",
+        "og_desc": "Pure 3-point specialists lose 2.3 pts/100 in May — playmakers are the "
+        "only ones whose role grows.",
+    }
+
+
 # ---- OG images + stub pages ---------------------------------------------------
 
 OG_W, OG_H = 1200, 630

public/assets/insights.js

@@ -23,17 +23,35 @@
 
   function barsSVG(ins) {
     var rows = ins.rows.slice(0, 8);
-    var max = Math.max.apply(null, rows.map(function (r) { return r.value; }));
+    var vals = rows.map(function (r) { return r.value; });
+    var max = Math.max.apply(null, vals), min = Math.min.apply(null, vals);
     var W = 620, rowH = 34, padL = 200, padR = 130;
     var H = rows.length * rowH + 8;
     var s = '<svg viewBox="0 0 ' + W + ' ' + H + '" class="vh-ins__viz" role="img" aria-label="' + esc(ins.viz_label || 'bar chart') + '">';
-    rows.forEach(function (r, i) {
-      var y = i * rowH + 8, w = Math.max(3, (r.value / max) * (W - padL - padR));
-      var gold = i === 0;
-      s += '<text x="0" y="' + (y + 17) + '" class="vh-ins__svglabel">' + esc(r.label) + '</text>';
-      s += '<rect x="' + padL + '" y="' + y + '" width="' + w.toFixed(1) + '" height="20" rx="4" fill="' + (gold ? GOLD : TERRA) + '" opacity="' + (gold ? 1 : 0.55 + 0.4 * (1 - i / rows.length)) + '"/>';
-      s += '<text x="' + (padL + w + 8) + '" y="' + (y + 16) + '" class="vh-ins__svgval">' + r.value + (r.tag ? ' · ' + esc(r.tag) : '') + '</text>';
-    });
+    if (min >= 0) {
+      rows.forEach(function (r, i) {
+        var y = i * rowH + 8, w = Math.max(3, (r.value / max) * (W - padL - padR));
+        var gold = i === 0;
+        s += '<text x="0" y="' + (y + 17) + '" class="vh-ins__svglabel">' + esc(r.label) + '</text>';
+        s += '<rect x="' + padL + '" y="' + y + '" width="' + w.toFixed(1) + '" height="20" rx="4" fill="' + (gold ? GOLD : TERRA) + '" opacity="' + (gold ? 1 : 0.55 + 0.4 * (1 - i / rows.length)) + '"/>';
+        s += '<text x="' + (padL + w + 8) + '" y="' + (y + 16) + '" class="vh-ins__svgval">' + r.value + (r.tag ? ' · ' + esc(r.tag) : '') + '</text>';
+      });
+    } else {
+      // Diverging bars around a zero axis (e.g. playoff deltas that go negative).
+      var span = max - min, plotW = W - padL - padR;
+      var zeroX = padL + ((0 - min) / span) * plotW;
+      s += '<line x1="' + zeroX.toFixed(1) + '" y1="4" x2="' + zeroX.toFixed(1) + '" y2="' + (H - 4) + '" stroke="' + MUTED + '" stroke-width="1"/>';
+      rows.forEach(function (r, i) {
+        var y = i * rowH + 8;
+        var bw = Math.max(3, (Math.abs(r.value) / span) * plotW);
+        var bx = r.value < 0 ? zeroX - bw : zeroX;
+        var fill = r.value < 0 ? TERRA : GOLD;
+        var lx = r.value < 0 ? zeroX + 8 : bx + bw + 8;
+        s += '<text x="0" y="' + (y + 17) + '" class="vh-ins__svglabel">' + esc(r.label) + '</text>';
+        s += '<rect x="' + bx.toFixed(1) + '" y="' + y + '" width="' + bw.toFixed(1) + '" height="20" rx="4" fill="' + fill + '"/>';
+        s += '<text x="' + lx.toFixed(1) + '" y="' + (y + 16) + '" class="vh-ins__svgval">' + r.value + (r.tag ? ' · ' + esc(r.tag) : '') + '</text>';
+      });
+    }
     return s + '</svg>';
   }
 
@@ -255,22 +273,45 @@
     c.save();
     if (ins.viz === 'bars') {
       var rows = ins.rows.slice(0, 5);
-      var max = Math.max.apply(null, rows.map(function (r) { return r.value; }));
+      var bvals = rows.map(function (r) { return r.value; });
+      var bmax = Math.max.apply(null, bvals), bmin = Math.min.apply(null, bvals);
       var rh = h / rows.length;
-      rows.forEach(function (r, i) {
-        var ry = y + i * rh;
-        var bw = Math.max(4, (r.value / max) * (w - 260));
-        c.font = '400 26px ' + F; c.fillStyle = '#F9F6F0';
-        var label = r.label.length > 26 ? r.label.slice(0, 25) + '…' : r.label;
-        c.fillText(label, x, ry + rh / 2 + 8);
-        c.fillStyle = i === 0 ? GOLD : TERRA;
-        var bx = x + 260;
-        c.beginPath();
-        c.roundRect(bx, ry + rh / 2 - 13, bw, 26, 6);
-        c.fill();
-        c.fillStyle = MUTED; c.font = '400 24px ' + F;
-        c.fillText(String(r.value), bx + bw + 12, ry + rh / 2 + 8);
-      });
+      if (bmin >= 0) {
+        rows.forEach(function (r, i) {
+          var ry = y + i * rh;
+          var bw = Math.max(4, (r.value / bmax) * (w - 260));
+          c.font = '400 26px ' + F; c.fillStyle = '#F9F6F0';
+          var label = r.label.length > 26 ? r.label.slice(0, 25) + '…' : r.label;
+          c.fillText(label, x, ry + rh / 2 + 8);
+          c.fillStyle = i === 0 ? GOLD : TERRA;
+          var bx = x + 260;
+          c.beginPath();
+          c.roundRect(bx, ry + rh / 2 - 13, bw, 26, 6);
+          c.fill();
+          c.fillStyle = MUTED; c.font = '400 24px ' + F;
+          c.fillText(String(r.value), bx + bw + 12, ry + rh / 2 + 8);
+        });
+      } else {
+        // Diverging bars around a zero axis (e.g. playoff deltas that go negative).
+        var dspan = bmax - bmin, dplot = w - 260 - 60;
+        var dzero = x + 260 + ((0 - bmin) / dspan) * dplot;
+        c.strokeStyle = MUTED; c.lineWidth = 1;
+        c.beginPath(); c.moveTo(dzero, y); c.lineTo(dzero, y + h); c.stroke();
+        rows.forEach(function (r, i) {
+          var dry = y + i * rh;
+          var dbw = Math.max(4, (Math.abs(r.value) / dspan) * dplot);
+          var dbx = r.value < 0 ? dzero - dbw : dzero;
+          c.font = '400 26px ' + F; c.fillStyle = '#F9F6F0';
+          var dlabel = r.label.length > 26 ? r.label.slice(0, 25) + '…' : r.label;
+          c.fillText(dlabel, x, dry + rh / 2 + 8);
+          c.fillStyle = r.value < 0 ? TERRA : GOLD;
+          c.beginPath();
+          c.roundRect(dbx, dry + rh / 2 - 13, dbw, 26, 6);
+          c.fill();
+          c.fillStyle = MUTED; c.font = '400 24px ' + F;
+          c.fillText(String(r.value), (r.value < 0 ? dzero : dbx + dbw) + 12, dry + rh / 2 + 8);
+        });
+      }
     } else if (ins.viz === 'shares') {
       var rows2 = ins.rows;
       var rh2 = h / rows2.length;