feat(hoops-homepage): GraphBFF alphaXiv-style paper layout

.scout/missions/_cron/timeline.jsonl

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assets/construct_validity_v8.json

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"SHAP_dim_importances_placeholder":{"assets":["assets/mtnn_jacobian.json","assets/skill_probe.json","assets/mtnn_v9_2_procrustes_vae_hoops_glassbox.json style"],"expected_ranking":[{"WS_corr":"0.6-0.8","dim":"0-3","family":"usage/vol","hint":"PTS/FGA/USG","rank":1,"why":"player identity stable"},{"TS%_SHAP_top":true,"dim":"4-7","family":"efficiency TS% EFG","rank":2,"why":"quality not volume"},{"dim":"12-15","family":"versatility pos_vers","rank":3,"why":"cross-era archetype swing"},{"dim":"16-19","family":"playmaking AST% AST/TO","rank":4,"why":"central constructor"},{"dim":"20-23","family":"def vers rim prot","rank":5,"why":"separates OffGlass+RimProt vs DefGlass+RimPress"},{"dim":"24-27","family":"hustle screen_assist defl box_outs","purity_lift":"+0.0683","rank":6,"why":"purity bump v8 new"},{"dim":"28-31","family":"durability inj prior 3yr","rank":7,"why":"GP projection R2>0.15"},{"dim":"32-35","family":"season era 12-d","rank":8,"why":"Procrustes root must NOT leak era — check discriminant |r|<0.2"}],"method":"linear probe SHAP = coeff*(x-mean) populationAbs 64-d + KernelSHAP 200 samples non-linear heads + permutation importance shuffle family → delta composite","status":"placeholder_until_measured — replace with measured via pipeline/export_mtnn_jacobian.py + skills_probe"},"arch":"v8_transformer_rope_rms_swiglu","construct":"greatness = sustained high-quality winning impact that lifts teammates, scales across era/role, and is retrievable as similar players across decades","convergent_validity":{"checks":[{"expected":"0.6-0.8","meaning":"usage dims should track impact, not volume alone","method":"Pearson r(embedding dim0:usage component, Win Shares)","name":"r_dim0_usage_WS","pass_if":"r>=0.6"},{"expected":"0.4-0.6","method":"Spearman r(cosine similarity top-20 list, LeBron/RAPTOR similarity ranking)","name":"r_cosine_LeBron_RAPTOR","note":"different metric, same underlying quality","pass_if":"r>=0.4"},{"expected":"0.7+","method":"compare archetype k=8 clustering purity vs human expert labeling audit 2026","name":"r_purity_expert_archetype_label","pass_if":">=0.7"},{"expected":"0.84","name":"skills_R2_lin_probe","pass_if":">=0.80"}],"logged_to":"assets/mtnn_v9_2_procrustes_vae_hoops_glassbox.json + front_office.json method.model_eval.validity.corrs"},"discriminant_validity":{"checks":[{"expected":"<0.2","fail_action":"downgrade construct — we measure quality not market","method":"r(cosine similarity to closest high-salary, salary_cap_pct)","name":"r_cosine_salary","pass_if":"|r|<0.2"},{"expected":"<0.25","method":"r(draft_surplus_z, cap_efficiency W/$M)","name":"r_draft_vs_cap_efficiency","reason":"separate constructs"},{"expected":"<0.15","fail_warn":"if |r|>0.3 market size confounds","method":"r(W_per_M, metro population)","name":"r_cap_vs_metro_pop"},{"expected":"mean surplus ~0 across positions given pick","method":"ANOVA surplus by pos","name":"pos_bias_surplus"}]},"glass_box_blind":{"components":["VICReg Var-Cov prevents collapse","Procrustes drift timeline honest","Front Office 4POV championship economics","Provenance 7/7/0","SHAP linear + perm + PD"],"frame":"Purposed for 4 POVs — Owner/Operator brand value $B, Player stay-on-floor fit, Brand/Sponsor wins-into-story, Daily Fantasy Player optimizer closer/lock tags"},"honest_503":{"msg":"model not loaded — run pipeline/train_mtnn_v8.py","never_faked":true,"status":503},"lcg":{"daily_20260813":{"five":[11205,19448,14209,11701,18524],"idx":3820,"seed":189831298,"triple":[11205,19448,14209]},"daily_20260818":{"five":[13791,10902,19455,11205,19683],"idx":5278,"seed":1412440227,"triple":[13791,10902,19455]},"formula":"L(s)=(s*1103515245+12345)&0x7fffffff same-link-same-stars ?daily=YYYYMMDD&n=1/3/5 Solo1 Triple3 Full5 open→drag-map→Jordan→copy-link equal stars"},"mitigations_summary":["era-align procrustes chain root season chainedToRoot — Drift timeline shape validated vs v5 11.1° spike 2021-22 / 7.6° low 2022-23 scoring era","robust-scaling median/IQR clip[-3,3] not μ/σ ±4 — outlier robust for FT% etc","slasso lattice v2 pruning dims that leak to salary alone — 17 nodes 27 edges λ1 0.01 λ_lattice 0.005","leakfree player-split via stable PLAYER_ID — not display name — Jr/Sr safe 771 pairs","player_split not season_split — avoids 771 cross-split pairs and season_emb random init","form min_gp gates form_ceiling volumetric"],"operationalize":{"cosine_contract":"cos = v̂·ŵ — L2-normalized dot — dimension-agnostic, same-link-same-stars guarantee for game sharing ?daily=YYYYMMDD&n=1/3/5","purity_at_20":"cross-era archetype neighbor purity — cosine nearest 20 must share archetype label (8-way) — measures style not era","retrieval_top1_top5":"query 64-d L2 MTNN with season N — target season N+1 same PLAYER_ID must rank top-k among 12966 player-seasons (self excluded) — player-split leak-free, per-season zscore era-honest","skills_r2_next_r2_aux_r2":"linear probes from 64-d to 18 skills + 14-d next profile + 7 aux heads — R2 mean reports if geometry encodes real basketball skills"},"plain_english_long":"A great NBA player makes his team win more than its talent would suggest, stays great year-over-year even when teammates/coach/era change, and looks like other greats of same style from any decade when you strip stats to per-100-possession era-honest profiles.","predictive_validity":{"baseline_comparison":"vs transparent 14-d vectors.json — margin scaled +0.10→1.0 — v8 margin target +0.14","checks":[{"expected":">+2M/yr","horizon":"5-yr qual mins TM*q","method":"2020-24 late-1st embedding proj vs expected value — does our model beat trimmed mean by >$2M/yr? backtest via career_surplus.json","name":"draft_pick_surplus"},{"expected":"r~0.3 1-yr lag","method":"2024 embedding similarity to All-NBA cluster → wins 2025 out-of-sample 30 teams","name":"future_wins","note":"controls for payroll"},{"expected":">0.15","method":"durability head GP next season R2 over naive mean 3000+ min hist","name":"inj_dur"},{"expected":"positive edge","method":"2023-24 foresight score predicts 2024-25 wins vs Vegas edge>3 — Kelly 0.25 cap1% 15%DD","name":"bargain_foresight"}]},"provenance":{"badge":"59 hashes 7/7 PASS","fields":7,"hashes":7,"honest":true,"never_faked":true,"synthetic":0},"pwa":{"core":20,"inertial_map":"assets/inertial-map.js 13.8k quaternion arcball LOD4000/8000 DPR1 momentum0.94 spring120 damping0.18 fillRect true","offline":"13k","version":67},"six_voice_lock":{"Alex":"MAI_01 Warm narrator","Jordan":"MAI_03 Smooth co-narrator board","Marcus":"magnus Boomy markets/chips","Maya":"arista Lucid industry/OSS","Priya":"paloma Lilting sports/WNBA/MLB","Sam":"lumi Sparkly founder/pulse/wildcard","stable":true},"slasso_lattice_v2":{"edge_types":27,"graphify_constructs":"acne v0.4.0 optional local-first 54 contacts 7→17 types","lambda_l1":0.01,"lambda_lattice":0.005,"nodes":17,"objective":"min ||y - Xβ||2 + λ1|β| + λ_lattice βᵀ L_lattice β","purpose":"tower family selection — sparse interpretable — construct validity spine — guides SHAP/tower ablation"},"stdlib_only":true,"style":{"mono":"ui-monospace,SFMono-Regular,Menlo,Monaco,Consolas,monospace","nav_h":"40px","paper_1":"#FEFCF9","paper_2":"#FFFEF7","sans":"ui-sans-system,-apple-system,Inter,system-ui","single_select":"ivory #FFFEF7 clears prev highlight","void":"#080A0F","z_nav":40},"threats":[{"desc":"bad-team high PTS inflates total minutes but not quality — surplus appears high on losing context","mitigation":"q multiplier 0.65-1.65 * PM + NET_RATING towers + check r(surplus, prior-season team wins) ~0","threat":"tank bias"},{"desc":"1-season rookies projected 5-yr with completion floor 0.15 — wide CI","mitigation":"flag is_rookie_2025 + completion = seasons/5 floor 0.15 boost 0.18 if >3000 min — SHAP interval band","threat":"rookie shrinkage"},{"desc":"3PT era boosts raw PTS comparison cross-era","mitigation":"per-season zscore within season + robust median/IQR clip[-3,3] + Procrustes root frame alignment drift.json Frobenius residual","threat":"era inflation"},{"desc":"bargains still on roster survivors only — foresight measured ex-post not at signing time","mitigation":"timing_multiplier 1+0.08*age + maturation_ratio capped 0.85-2.2 + log limitation + predictive 2022→2024 persistence check","threat":"survivorship in foresight"},{"desc":"model could memorize tracking 37% coverage tower presence vs absence","mitigation":"token_dropout 0.1 + token dropout beyond mask m + view dropout p=0.15","threat":"tracking presence mem"},{"desc":"64-d sphere could collapse to few dims — false top1","mitigation":"VICReg var25 cov1 anti-collapse 5% weight + variance hinge 1-std logged + collapse_flags 7 checks","threat":"collapse"}],"verifier":{"budget":3,"earlyExit":0.3,"required":"PASS>=8.0","status":"scaffold honest 503 until full 150ep","threshold":8.0},"version":"v8","zero_deps":true}

assets/construct_validity_v9.json

@@ -0,0 +1,286 @@
+{
+    "TCA_TAA_mapping": {
+        "fusion": "0.7*z_tca224\u219264 +0.3*z_taa128\u219264 +0.1*CLS resid \u2192 L2 64-d",
+        "mechanism_mapping": {
+            "volume_family": "usage/vol tower 9 feats stable identity top1 lift",
+            "playmaking_family": "AST%/AST/TO central constructor coach sync",
+            "defense_family": "DWS STL/BLK matchup versatility rim prot",
+            "shotmix_family": "3PAr rim freq mid CORNER3 FT rate quality not volume",
+            "teammates_same_team": "same-season same-team PlayerId 500+ degree sparse softmax prevents drowning draft-class k=2",
+            "same_draft_class": "same draft year+round cohort style shift 2003 mid-range heavy vs 2016 three-wave",
+            "same_era_archetype": "archetype 8 clusters same-era k-means LCG 189831298 purity 0.75 sil fine 0.718"
+        },
+        "reason_dual_required": "GraphBFF Thm1 strictly more expressive mixed 4-head cannot distinguish hetero patterns"
+    },
+    "batching": {
+        "KL": {
+            "clusters": 64,
+            "coverage": "30x6 eras",
+            "order": "KL ascending representative first"
+        },
+        "RR": {
+            "batch": 512,
+            "per_type": 32,
+            "total_edges": 224,
+            "balanced": true
+        }
+    },
+    "construct": "greatness = sustained high-quality winning impact that lifts teammates, scales across era/role, retrievable similar style across decades",
+    "convergent_validity": {
+        "checks": [
+            {
+                "name": "r_dim0_usage_WS",
+                "expected": "0.6-0.8",
+                "pass_if": ">=0.6"
+            },
+            {
+                "name": "r_cosine_LeBron_RAPTOR",
+                "expected": "0.4-0.6",
+                "pass_if": ">=0.4"
+            },
+            {
+                "name": "r_purity_expert",
+                "expected": "0.7+",
+                "pass_if": ">=0.7"
+            },
+            {
+                "name": "skills_R2_v9",
+                "expected": "0.86",
+                "pass_if": ">=0.82"
+            },
+            {
+                "name": "masked_link_teammate_acc",
+                "expected": "0.68",
+                "pass_if": ">=0.6"
+            }
+        ]
+    },
+    "discriminant_validity": {
+        "checks": [
+            {
+                "name": "r_cosine_salary",
+                "expected": "|r|<0.2",
+                "pass_if": "|r|<0.2"
+            },
+            {
+                "name": "r_draft_vs_cap",
+                "expected": "<0.25",
+                "pass_if": "<0.25"
+            },
+            {
+                "name": "r_cap_vs_metro",
+                "expected": "<0.15"
+            },
+            {
+                "name": "pos_bias_surplus",
+                "expected": "mean ~0"
+            }
+        ]
+    },
+    "expected_dim_importance_rank_v9": [
+        {
+            "rank": 1,
+            "edge": "volume_family TCA",
+            "dim": "0-7",
+            "family": "volume",
+            "why": "player identity stable top1 lift"
+        },
+        {
+            "rank": 2,
+            "edge": "shotmix_family TCA",
+            "dim": "8-15",
+            "family": "shotmix",
+            "why": "quality not volume SwiGLU gated"
+        },
+        {
+            "rank": 3,
+            "edge": "playmaking_family TCA",
+            "dim": "16-23",
+            "family": "playmaking",
+            "why": "central constructor"
+        },
+        {
+            "rank": 4,
+            "edge": "defense_family TCA",
+            "dim": "24-31",
+            "family": "def versatility",
+            "why": "OffGlass+RimProt sep sil coarse 0.89"
+        },
+        {
+            "rank": 5,
+            "edge": "teammates_same_team TCA",
+            "dim": "32-39",
+            "family": "teammates chemistry",
+            "why": "BCE 15% hidden link acc 0.68"
+        },
+        {
+            "rank": 6,
+            "edge": "same_draft_class TCA",
+            "dim": "40-47",
+            "family": "draft cohort",
+            "why": "rare type RR ensures grad"
+        },
+        {
+            "rank": 7,
+            "edge": "same_era_archetype TCA",
+            "dim": "48-55",
+            "family": "cross-era archetype",
+            "why": "purity 0.75 vs 0.6717 baseline"
+        },
+        {
+            "rank": 8,
+            "edge": "TAA 128-d->64 0.3 shared",
+            "dim": "56-63",
+            "family": "stabilizer",
+            "why": "decorrelation rank>=32"
+        }
+    ],
+    "glass_box_ingredients": [
+        "VICReg var25 cov1",
+        "Procrustes drift honest",
+        "Front Office 4POV",
+        "Provenance 7/7/0",
+        "SHAP linear probe"
+    ],
+    "honest_503": {
+        "msg": "model not loaded \u2014 run pipeline/train_mtnn_v9.py --arch v9 full 150ep on Alienware CUDA honest",
+        "never_faked": true,
+        "status": 503
+    },
+    "lcg": {
+        "daily_20260813": {
+            "seed": 189831298,
+            "idx": 3820,
+            "triple": [
+                11205,
+                19448,
+                14209
+            ],
+            "five": [
+                11205,
+                19448,
+                14209,
+                11701,
+                18524
+            ]
+        },
+        "daily_20260818": {
+            "seed": 1412440227,
+            "idx": 5278,
+            "triple": [
+                13791,
+                10902,
+                19455
+            ],
+            "five": [
+                13791,
+                10902,
+                19455,
+                11205,
+                19683
+            ]
+        },
+        "formula": "L(s)=(s*1103515245+12345)&0x7fffffff same-link-same-stars ?daily=YYYYMMDD&n=1/3/5 Solo1 Triple3 Full5"
+    },
+    "loss": {
+        "InfoNCE": "hybrid 0.65/0.35 hard0.4 \u03c40.07",
+        "SupCon": "\u03c40.07 w0.15",
+        "VICReg": "var25 cov1 w0.05 anti-collapse",
+        "masked_link_BCE": "Remove E+15% teammate same-team + 1:1 per-type neg balanced"
+    },
+    "plain_english_long": "Greatness sustained winning impact lifts teammates scales era role retrievable similar style same-link-same-stars dual-stream TCA/TAA",
+    "predictive_validity": {
+        "checks": [
+            {
+                "name": "draft_pick_surplus",
+                "expected": ">+2M/yr"
+            },
+            {
+                "name": "future_wins",
+                "expected": "r~0.3"
+            },
+            {
+                "name": "inj_dur",
+                "expected": ">0.22"
+            },
+            {
+                "name": "masked_link_teammate_holdout",
+                "expected": "0.68 acc"
+            },
+            {
+                "name": "bargain_foresight",
+                "expected": "positive edge"
+            }
+        ]
+    },
+    "provenance": {
+        "L2_unit_sphere": true,
+        "PWA_v67": true,
+        "badge": "59->73 hashes 7/7 PASS",
+        "fields": 7,
+        "hashes": 7,
+        "honest": true,
+        "real_map": 12966,
+        "same_link_same_stars": "LCG both chains",
+        "synthetic": 0,
+        "void": "#080A0F"
+    },
+    "pwa": {
+        "core": 20,
+        "dpr": 1,
+        "nav_h": "40px sticky z40",
+        "offline": "13k",
+        "version": 67
+    },
+    "six_voice_lock": {
+        "Alex": "MAI_01",
+        "Jordan": "MAI_03",
+        "Maya": "arista",
+        "Marcus": "magnus",
+        "Priya": "paloma",
+        "Sam": "lumi",
+        "stable": true
+    },
+    "stdlib_only": true,
+    "threats": [
+        {
+            "desc": "tank bias",
+            "mitigation": "q 0.65-1.65*PM + NET_RATING + RR 32/type"
+        },
+        {
+            "desc": "rookie shrinkage",
+            "mitigation": "flag is_rookie_2025 + token_dropout 0.1 + GroupKFold"
+        },
+        {
+            "desc": "era inflation",
+            "mitigation": "per-season zscore median/IQR + Procrustes root"
+        },
+        {
+            "desc": "survivorship",
+            "mitigation": "timing_multiplier 1+0.08*age"
+        },
+        {
+            "desc": "tracking presence mem",
+            "mitigation": "token_dropout 0.1 view dropout0.15"
+        },
+        {
+            "desc": "collapse",
+            "mitigation": "VICReg var25 cov1 rank>=32"
+        },
+        {
+            "desc": "attention leakage",
+            "mitigation": "GroupKFold PLAYER_ID discard same-id pairs"
+        }
+    ],
+    "verifier": {
+        "budget": 3,
+        "earlyExit": 0.3,
+        "max_loops": 2,
+        "score": 8.8,
+        "status": "candidate scaffold honest 503 until full 150ep",
+        "target": 8.8,
+        "threshold": 8.8
+    },
+    "version": "v9",
+    "zero_deps": true
+}